Middle East crude exports near pre-war levels, lagging fuel shipments and Trump’s diesel order may show that the tightest supply is now in refined fuels, not crude oil

Middle East crude exports are back to about 98% of pre-war levels, JPMorgan estimates, but fuel product shipments are at about 58%. Last Thursday, Reuters reported that PetroChina canceled some planned October gasoline and jet-fuel shipments to protect domestic supplies, a report CNBC could not independently verify. And on Monday, President Trump signed an order that temporarily allows cheaper dyed diesel on highways and defers the federal excise tax on it; the U.S. average diesel price had topped $6 a gallon for the first time in September. Read together, they may show that the tightest supply is now in refined fuels such as diesel, not in crude oil.

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