Bond-yield whiplash eases as markets await September U.S. jobs report
Global shares rose Friday after days of disorderly selling in Treasuries and European debt; investors expect about 84,000–90,000 September payrolls and a 4.1% unemployment rate.
What moved Friday: Global shares rose as wild swings in bond and currency markets eased ahead of the U.S. September jobs report, Reuters reported. Nasdaq futures were up about 0.7% and S&P 500 futures gained about 0.4% in early trade, Reuters said. CNBC framed the session as “bond yield whiplash” after the U.S. 10-year Treasury’s largest quarterly rise in a century in the third quarter and a 30-year yield at a 24-year high.
In Europe, longer-dated sovereign bond prices rose on the day, though French and Italian debt lagged Germany as investors sought safety, Reuters reported. The French–German 10-year yield gap widened as far as about 149 basis points — the widest since the 2012 euro-zone debt crisis. U.K. long-dated gilt yields recently hit levels not seen since 1998, CNBC said.
Jobs data in focus: Economists expect roughly 84,000 to 90,000 nonfarm payrolls added in September, with unemployment steady at 4.1%, according to CNBC and Reuters. A hot print — especially in wages — could revive bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike; markets were pricing only about a 25% chance of an October move after dovish comments from policymakers this week, Reuters reported. A December hike remained more fully priced.
Oil and currencies: Crude slipped Friday after spiking on reports of a larger U.S. military buildup in the Middle East. WTI was down more than 3% near $90 a barrel and Brent around $100, Reuters said, as traders also watched talk of EU countries tapping diesel reserves. The dollar stayed firm after a strong overnight rally; the euro nursed losses near multi-month lows, Reuters reported.
What this means: Markets are still digesting war-driven inflation risk and stretched public finances. Today’s payrolls report is the next clear signal for whether bond yields resume climbing or the relief rally in stocks and debt can stick.