Trump’s approval sinks near career lows as midterms approach
Multiple national polls put President Trump near career-low approval weeks before the midterms, raising questions about whether Republicans can hold narrow majorities in Congress.
What the polls show: President Donald Trump is facing some of the weakest approval ratings of his political career weeks before the midterms, USA TODAY reported Oct. 4, as questions mount over whether Republicans can hold their narrow congressional majorities. A New York Times polling average cited by USA TODAY put Trump at 37% approve and 61% disapprove among U.S. adults.
An AP-NORC poll last week found Trump’s approval at 31% — the lowest across either of his two terms, below a previous career low of 32% in late 2017 in the same series — and said 65% of Americans blamed the president’s policies for increasing costs, USA TODAY reported. A Wall Street Journal poll last weekend also registered 37% approval, two points below George W. Bush’s 39% before the 2006 midterms, when Democrats gained five Senate and 31 House seats. Quinnipiac on Sept. 30 had Trump at 34% approve and 61% disapprove, matching that poll’s highest Trump disapproval, last seen Jan. 18, 2021 after Jan. 6, USA TODAY said.
Averages as of Oct. 2 showed RealClearPolitics at 38.2% approve / 60.3% disapprove, the New York Times at 37/61, and Silver Bulletin at 37.1/60.6, according to USA TODAY.
Forecasts and turnout math: Zachary Donnini, VoteHub’s head of data science, told USA TODAY there is “no floor for Republicans right now,” estimating roughly a 20–25% chance the midterm outcome could be “devastating” for Republicans because Trump is unpopular and Republican voters are not enthused, while Democrats hold a high-propensity coalition advantage. A Decision Desk HQ forecast cited by USA TODAY projected Democrats retaking the Senate with 51 seats and the House with a 234-seat majority.
Campaign trail context: On Saturday night in Vandalia, Ohio, Trump rallied for Sen. Jon Husted against Democrat Sherrod Brown and for Vivek Ramaswamy against Amy Acton for governor, predicting a “big surprise,” NBC News reported Oct. 3. White House officials told NBC the president would push through at least 17 states by Nov. 3. The Senate Leadership Fund poured another $14 million into Ohio for Husted, bringing its total there to $93 million, NBC said. Trump told the crowd, “When I run, we win… when I don’t run, they draw 44% less people… pretend that I’m running,” NBC reported. Brown’s campaign circulated a mobile billboard linking Husted’s Iran war support to higher gas prices.
What this means: With approval near career lows across several pollsters, the midterm fight is shaping up less around legislative wins than around whether Republican turnout can offset an unpopular president — a test both parties will measure in Ohio and beyond through Nov. 3.