Stocks snap a losing streak as the 10-year Treasury yield hits a 19-year high
Wall Street closed its first winning week in three on Friday, lifted by AI stocks and softer oil. But bond yields near 5.2% and rising odds of a Fed rate hike kept investors uneasy.
The numbers: U.S. stocks rose on Friday, September 25, according to the Associated Press and Reuters:
- S&P 500: up 39.28 points, or 0.5%, to 7,743.41
- Dow Jones Industrial Average: up 478.64 points, or 0.9%, to 51,828.62
- Nasdaq Composite: up 129.34 points, or 0.5%, to 27,068.72
For the week, the S&P 500 gained 1.2%, the Nasdaq 2.1% and the Dow 0.3%, AP reported. It was the first winning week for stocks in three, and Kiplinger noted it ended a three-week losing streak for the Dow. The S&P 500 finished within 0.7% of the all-time high it set last month.
What moved: Oil prices eased on reports that U.S. and Iranian negotiators were exploring a path out of the war that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters and The Wall Street Journal reported. Lower oil helped take some pressure off the market.
Tech led the gains. Microsoft rose 3.7% after unveiling new Copilot features, including a coding tool and an always-on AI agent, Reuters reported. Akamai Technologies climbed 3.2% after announcing an $11.6 billion cloud services deal with AI company Anthropic. Meta Platforms slipped 3.3% on Friday after rallying about 13% during the week.
The worry — bond yields: The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note touched a fresh 19-year high, last at about 5.196%, according to Reuters. AP said the yield briefly jumped near its highest level since 2007 before easing.
Why that matters to regular people: the 10-year yield is a benchmark for borrowing costs, including mortgage rates. When it rises, loans tend to get more expensive, and stocks can look less attractive next to safer bonds.
The Fed question: Traders now see a 66% chance the Federal Reserve raises interest rates by at least a quarter point in October, up from roughly 50% earlier in the week, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool as cited by Reuters. That is market pricing, not a Fed decision.
Context: The S&P 500 traded at just under 19 times expected earnings this week, its lowest valuation since 2023, Reuters reported, citing LSEG data. Separate government data showed orders for key capital goods beat expectations in August, helped by AI-related spending. Year to date, the S&P 500 is up 13.1%, per AP.
After the bell: Friday’s rally leaned on hopes for a U.S.–Iran deal. On Saturday, President Trump said he had rejected Iran’s seven-day proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters and the BBC. Markets have not yet traded on that news; U.S. exchanges reopen Monday.
What this means: Stocks are holding near records, but the pressure points are energy prices and borrowing costs. If you are shopping for a mortgage or carrying variable-rate debt, rising Treasury yields and the chance of an October Fed hike are the numbers to watch. This is not investment advice.
Sources
- Associated Press (via WTOP) — How major US stock indexes fared Friday 9/25/2026
- Reuters (via LSE.co.uk) — Wall Street ends higher as investors buy AI stocks; Microsoft rallies
- The Wall Street Journal — U.S. Stocks Rise To End Volatile Week
- Kiplinger — Dow Rises 478 Points Under Rate Pressure: Stock Market Today
- BBC News — Trump rejects Iran deal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in seven days