Majority of Americans expect Democrats to take the House; Senate outlook nearly tied
A Pew Research Center survey of 5,062 U.S. adults finds 55% expect Democrats to win control of the House, while the public is nearly split on whether Republicans will keep the Senate. Partisans largely forecast wins for their own party.
The headline numbers: In a survey conducted Sept. 28–Oct. 4 and published Oct. 15, Pew found 55% of U.S. adults expect Democrats to win a House majority and 40% expect Republicans to keep it. On the Senate, 48% predict Republicans will hold their majority and 46% expect Democrats to flip control, Pew reported.
How Pew framed it: Associate director of politics Steven Shepard wrote that “citizen forecasts” measure expectations rather than asking respondents to act as pundits, and that the balance of opinion generally tracks how observers see the political environment. Americans see Democrats as having a better chance at the House than at the Senate, the short-read said.
Partisan split: Expectations track party identity closely. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 80% say Democrats will flip the House and 71% say they will capture the Senate. Among Republicans and Republican leaners, 68% say the GOP will retain the House and 75% say it will hold the Senate, according to Pew’s tables.
Sweep vs. split Congress: Overall, 41% of adults expect Democrats to control both chambers after November, 34% expect Republicans to keep both, 14% expect a Democratic House and Republican Senate, and 5% expect the reverse split, Pew reported. About two-thirds of each partisan coalition (65% of Democrats and leaners; 62% of Republicans and leaners) expect their side to sweep both chambers.
About the survey: The poll covered 5,062 adults on Pew’s American Trends Panel and is designed to represent the full U.S. adult population. Pew noted it first asked Americans about congressional-election expectations in 2016. Full questions and methodology are published with the short-read.
Why it matters now: With midterms weeks away, the gap between House and Senate expectations matches the conventional map — more competitive House seats than Senate paths — while the near-tie on the Senate underlines how unsettled that chamber looks to the public.