House Republicans fretting over once-safe red seats ahead of midterms
Internal GOP polling circulated in late September showed competitive races in districts Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. Party leaders are campaigning deep in red territory less than four weeks before Election Day.
The alarm: Top House Republicans, party committees and campaigns received internal polling in late September that showed close-to-catastrophic scenarios in formerly safe red seats, Politico reported Friday, citing three people with direct knowledge who spoke anonymously. Districts Trump carried by 10 points or more in Kentucky, North Carolina, Nevada and elsewhere looked competitive.
Iowa flashpoint: Senior Republicans privately fear losing all three contested Iowa House races — Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, plus the open seat vacated by Senate candidate Ashley Hinson — according to people familiar with the data, Politico and a Yahoo News summary of the report said. Other Midwest seats for Reps. Bryan Steil of Wisconsin, Brad Finstad of Minnesota and Mike Flood of Nebraska also look tighter than expected.
Why they’re worried: Strategists told Politico their worst fear is that white working-class voters, angry over high fuel prices and the war with Iran, will not only stay home but vote Democratic. “We don’t know where the bottom is,” one senior House Republican said. Retiring Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.) told the outlet polls “aren’t looking good,” while noting surveys have been unreliable in recent cycles.
Pushback and travel: The RNC and NRCC dismissed anonymous strategists as out of touch and pointed to fundraising and field advantages. Speaker Mike Johnson was set to fundraise Friday in Kentucky’s 6th District, which Trump won by 15 points in 2024; Trump planned a Saturday rally in deep-red Tennessee. Democrats’ congressional campaign arm told Politico it expects to reach 218 seats and could win as many as 240, Yahoo News reported.