Leading may not be enough: Brazil’s runoff rule, the Senate’s 60-vote hurdle and an eight-justice Supreme Court may make the threshold matter more than the lead

Flávio Bolsonaro led the first round of Brazil’s presidential election but fell short of a majority, so he faces President Lula da Silva in an Oct. 25 runoff. Two Republican bills drew majority support in procedural Senate votes but not the 60 needed to advance. And with Justice Samuel Alito not participating, a 4-4 tie in Boulder’s climate case would leave in place the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision allowing the lawsuit to proceed. Read together, they may show that a lead can fall short of the bar a rule sets, and that in the Senate and the Court the shortfall may favor the status quo.

Theory - analysis